Top Outfield Players — Monte Carlo Simulation (correlated bonus)
Each curve shows the probability distribution of FPL points a player could score in the upcoming gameweek, estimated from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
How the simulations work: For each simulation we sample goals (Poisson), assists (Poisson), clean sheets (Bernoulli), bonus points (correlated with goals/assists/CS via a trained model), cards (Bernoulli), and goals-conceded penalties. These are converted to FPL points using official scoring rules and summed to produce a total for that trial. The resulting 10,000 totals are smoothed into the KDE curves you see below.
How to read the plot:
Model inputs include rolling xG, xGA, fixture difficulty, home/away, and historical per-90 stats. All predictions are for a single gameweek.
Monte Carlo Simulation · Tap card for details